Modelling the potential impacts of limiting vaping product sales to pharmacies

Abstract

Background: Vaping rates are increasing globally. Restricting vaping products' access may result in net population health loss if youths who vape switch to smoking, or net gain if it promotes cessation among people who smoke. We used simulation modelling to assess how two vaping restriction policies - over-the-counter (OTC) pharmacy access or prescription-only access via general practitioners - might impact vaping and smoking rates in Aotearoa New Zealand (A/NZ). Methods: We adapted an established Markov model of smoking and vaping, linked to a proportional multistate lifetable, to simulate the A/NZ population from 2023 to 2044. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios (low', medium' and high..